Introduction

TL;DR

  • The 2025-09-22 announcement was a 10GW compute LOI with an “up to $100B” progressive investment framing.
  • On 2026-01-31, reporting said the megadeal is “on ice,” while Jensen Huang publicly said Nvidia will still invest “a huge” amount—but “nothing like” $100B.
  • The real question is deal structure (compute deployment + leasing + equity) and execution milestones (when 1GW actually goes live).

Nvidia OpenAI investment is being reinterpreted in real time: a 10GW infrastructure LOI announced on 2025-09-22, followed by 2026-01-31 reports of a stalled “$100B” plan and Huang’s pushback that a “huge” investment is still planned.

Why it matters: This is a blueprint for how AI “mega numbers” evolve—LOIs, funding rounds, and compute procurement can blur into one headline unless you separate layers.

What was announced on 2025-09-22

10GW compute LOI + progressive “up to $100B” framing

The official announcements describe a letter of intent to deploy at least 10GW of AI datacenters with NVIDIA systems, with the first 1GW targeted for H2 2026 on the Vera Rubin platform.

Why it matters: For operators, the measurable KPI isn’t “$100B,” it’s GW deployed, power secured, and go-live timelines.

What “on ice” is actually saying

LOI vs definitive agreement

WSJ/Reuters reporting frames the “$100B megadeal” as stalled/on ice—i.e., the originally publicized top-end structure may not have solidified into a finalized, binding package.

Why it matters: In infrastructure-heavy AI deals, restructuring is common. Treat “on ice” as a signal to watch deal form and deployment progress, not just a binary “deal dead/deal alive.”

What Huang’s “huge (but not $100B)” rebuttal changes

“We’ll be involved” + “nothing like that”

Huang’s public line is consistent: Nvidia will participate in the current funding round and make a very large investment, but not at the $100B level that headlines imply.

Why it matters: This narrows expectations: participation is likely, but amount/shape/timing are negotiable.

OpenAI’s fundraising context

Why $100B keeps showing up

Multiple reports frame OpenAI as seeking up to $100B in fundraising at a very high valuation, with large investors discussing major checks. This is separate from (but interacts with) the compute/infra LOI.

Why it matters: Fundraising, chip procurement, and infra buildouts can create “circular” narratives. Decision-makers must map cash → compute → contracts explicitly.

Practical comparison: deal structures (operator’s view)

Compute LOI vs equity vs leasing

Use a single grid to align finance, procurement, legal, and platform teams on what’s being discussed—and what’s actually committed.

Why it matters: The same headline number can imply totally different risks depending on whether it’s equity, capex, leases, or purchase commitments.

Conclusion

  • The 2025-09-22 announcement is best read as 10GW compute LOI + progressive investment intent, not a guaranteed $100B cash injection.
  • The 2026-01-31 “on ice” reporting suggests structure and commitment level are being revisited.
  • Huang’s rebuttal indicates continued participation but a lower (and likely different) investment structure than the headline figure.
  • Track milestones: 1GW go-live, contract finalization, and how equity vs leasing vs purchase commitments shake out.

Summary

  • Separate official LOI language from media framing and executive rebuttals.
  • Watch deployment milestones, not just fundraising totals.
  • Treat “$100B” as a ceiling/structure marker until definitive agreements and execution evidence appear.

References

  • (OpenAI and NVIDIA Announce Strategic Partnership to Deploy 10 Gigawatts of NVIDIA Systems, 2025-09-22)[https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-and-nvidia-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-10gw-of-nvidia-systems]
  • (OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, 2025-09-22)[https://openai.com/index/openai-nvidia-systems-partnership/]
  • (Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI linking two artificial intelligence titans, 2025-09-23)[https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-invest-100-billion-openai-2025-09-22/]
  • (Nvidia CEO Huang denies he is unhappy with OpenAI says huge investment planned, 2026-01-31)[https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nvidia-ceo-huang-denies-he-is-unhappy-with-openai-says-huge-investment-planned-2026-01-31/]
  • (Nvidia CEO pushes back against report that his companys $100B OpenAI investment has stalled, 2026-01-31)[https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/31/nvidia-ceo-pushes-back-against-report-that-his-companys-100b-openai-investment-has-stalled/]
  • (Nvidias investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI may not happen as planned, 2026-01-31)[https://www.theverge.com/tech/871480/nvidias-investment-of-up-to-100-billion-in-openai-may-not-happen-as-planned]
  • (SoftBank in talks to invest up to $30 billion more in OpenAI source says, 2026-01-28)[https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/softbank-talks-invest-up-30-billion-more-openai-wsj-reports-2026-01-28/]
  • (The $100 Billion Megadeal Between OpenAI and Nvidia Is on Ice, 2026-01-31)[https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-100-billion-megadeal-between-openai-and-nvidia-is-on-ice-aa3025e3]